Nepal’s Strategic Significance in Changing Geopolitics of the World

Nepal’s Strategic Significance in Changing Geopolitics of the World: -Mahendra Gautam “Nepal is Yam between Two Boulders”, the statement emerged inside the mind of a visionary king who could prophet the challenges of state existence of the country he created. Prithivi Narayan Shah, the father of modern Nepal was expansionist in the eyes of so-called postmodern progressive chauvinists of Nepal who advocate for cultural […]

Growing Border Dispute between Nepal and India; A Diplomatic Challenge of Long term Friendship.

Historic brotherly relationship between Nepal and India is heading towards huge diplomatic pandemonium since Indian Defense Minister Mr. Rajnath Sing Inagurated the road from Dharchula to Kalapani keeping Indian Army Chief and high ranked security personnel by his side. It became high voltage issue because the road that India is constructing falls under Nepal's territory and the presence of dignitaries on the occasion is unconventional. Nepal easily apprehended the gravity of the event that India, knowing very well that the territory belongs to Nepal is using deterrence against any possible retaliation from the host. It was a kind of threat imposed by India with clear message that it is ready to take any step to defend encroachment if any obstacle comes in the process. It was threat of war in reality.

The issue got heated in such a way even at the time of lockdown and pandemic, civilians came out in the street in protest. Protest was so spontaneous with participants from different social status. Issue reached to the International Relation Committee of the parliament and the government officials like Land Management Minister, Foreign Minister and even Prime Minister of Nepal had to come front to address it in the media and in parliament. But the way they took the issue in the beginning created huge anguish in public as Land Management Minister's irresponsible statement, "the area is not in the map of Nepal since 2032" augmented public protest. Foreign Minister's statement," government knew the issue since 2008" exposed the leadership capacity and intellectuality of communist government covered with nationalism. Even the Prime Minister's statement of possible lease grant provoked agitation against the government. However, Prime Minister Oli not only corrected himself but came with strong statement against India and his way of condemning their evil intension assertively has brought strong enthusiasm in the country. Though his assertion seems very short- lived due to delay on constitution amendment.

Nepal - India border dispute is not newly emerged phenomena, it bears long history. Both countries share almost 1800 Kilometers border in east, west and south, and there are more than 54 disputed areas waiting for appropriate resolution. Border demarcation took place after the Sugauli Treaty 1816 held between Nepal and British India. Total 913 pillars were placed between the countries with 58 rivers border. The present most hyped dispute of Limpiyadhura, Kalapani and Lipulek fall under the river border where the Kali River originated from Limpiyadhura was declared as the border line. Political map of both the countries were published accordingly. The Kali River is seen on the political map of both the countries locating it in Nepal's territory (Though India corrected the map on 22 may 2020 suddenly). However, India's claim on the land without evidences is utter nonsense.

Border dispute on Kalapani started from 1969 after the end of China- India war 1962. Nepal being a close friend of India helped it by providing space to keep 18 Indian army camps for its security during the war. After the end of that war, the relevance of deploying Indian army in Nepal's territory lost and Nepal asked India to take their army back. From 1969-70 India returned all the camps except Kalapani. Nepal was pressurizing the Indian government to take army back from Kalapani but untimely death of King Mahendra caused delay on the process. Later, due to the political havoc, the issue could not get proper gravity and remained under shadow. Many diplomatic attempts were made on the course but India acted dumb. After the restoration of democracy political instability in Nepal helped India to deepen its root in Kalapani. Indo- centric political leadership never raised authentically the Kalapani issue in bilateral forums.  Again India played the Maoist Card (Indian General said on an Indian T.V. on 20^th May 2020 in a debate program) to create more turmoil in Nepali politics. Finally, with the establishment of Republic, national sovereignty became the weakest ever in the history of Nepal. Seizing the moment, India inaugurated the road demonstrating threat against any possible retaliation from Nepal.

Lipulek Dispute has slight longer historical base than Kalapani though it came in limelight quite late. During the decades of 1950s China and India were thinking about opening trade routes between two countries for trade expansion. Lipulake was on their proposed route along five others. 1962 China- India war completely changed the political scenario until when in 1990s both countries again discussed the issue bypassing Nepal on the process. That was an attack against Nepal's sovereignty by both the neighbours. In 2005, China and India signed secret agreement to open trade route from Lipulek at prime Ministerial level. The signatories were Ben Ziabao and Manmohan Singh. In 2015, India and China formally signed the agreement. Nepal government sent very formal and customary letter to India and China without strong statement against the agreement. Finally, after the inauguration of road, Nepali politics has heated again.

Though news of border encroachment kept coming time and again Nepal always pretended indifferent. No government had seriousness regarding the protection of the Land. Accordingly, no striking attempt regarding the border issue has been taken. India kept interfering in almost every political development and change either the case of dissolving first elected government of B.P. koirala, restoration of democracy, Maoist insurgency or establishment of Republic. Nepali politics kept dancing in Indian music where as India continuously attacked Nepal's sovereignty. Nepali leaders of different political parties keep visiting Indian embassy to request for power and position (Bhojraj Pokhrel Nepal Vote for Peace.p142). The effect started to be seen in Nepal's policy making; citizenship scandal is one of the examples of it. Corruption in politics weaken the country. Day came when Limpiyadhura, kalapani Lipulake could not fit themselves with in the map of Nepal even in emblems. Textbooks got changed map. The Joint Border Regulation committee paralyzed and border pillars started to disappear overnight. India established security check posts, built infrastructures even encroaching Nepali territory. Civilian kept opposing India and lost their life but not the government from Kathmandu ever paid attention on it. In 2008, Dr.Baburam Bhattarai gave a contradictory statement on border issue. He said, "If borders cannot be managed, better merge two countries". It was completely irresponsible statement by any individual leading the government of a sovereign nation.

History shows there are numerous diplomatic weaknesses of Nepal in border issue. After the decade of 1970s, Nepal could not follow up kalapani dispute diplomatically. In Lipulek Agreement between China and India, Nepal did nothing except sending a diplomatic note and never presented the issue strongly in international forums. Government could have formed Special Task Force to sit on dialogue with India but never felt the need of it. Politicians always came with irresponsible statements. Nepal's diplomatic practice became so weak that even a bureaucrat of representing nation could meet anybody at any time without approval of Foreign Ministry. It was just a naked dance against diplomatic norms and culture. The result, Nepal now is in the weakest position to defend its sovereignty.

Way ahead

Publication of new map based on Sugauli Treaty is no doubt a positive step taken by the government of Nepal. Constitution amendment must take place in no time though it is not going ahead strongly. Blame game between government and opposition party needs an end. India strongly opposed Nepal's move regarding map. Their policy can be either of the three or all of them. One, they will try to impose military threat to deter Nepal. In that case, Nepal should respond with great patience and follow diplomatic norms unlike Indian army chief Narvane. Second, they can emotionally blackmail with the issues like religious proximity, ethnic proximity and brotherly relation. Nepal can respond positively to those emotional issues but never give up raising the issue of sovereignty. Third, they will be trying to delay the issue pretending disinterestedness and continuously work for destroying national unity and even evidences related the issue. India is ignoring Nepal whereas with China it is sitting for dialogue. It is their policy to prove the issue insignificant. Nepal should be thinking about taking the issue consciously and aggressively through diplomatic channels. Special Task Force can be formed for negotiation. Taking stand on Sugauli Traety, 1816 as base of evidence in dialogue is only way ahead. Evidences related to census and land tax should be presented in support of Sugauli Treaty. The map sent to United Nation at the time of membership application can be very strong evidence in the international forum. To pressurize more in the future Nepal can slightly oppose the visit culture, ignore army's symbolic ceremonial head culture, increase border check posts in border areas, Keep raising border issues in each and every bilateral and international forums, keep talking about revisiting 1950s Peace and Friendship Treaty, Weapons purchase from the country except India. There is no alternative of bilateral talk regarding the issue. Both the country must consider the historical, cultural and ethnic proximity before taking any harder step. Time has come to check the true feeling of nationalism among all the political parties especially of the present government.

Ethical degradation of Nepali Politics

Nepal has been experiencing numerous political changes in the past seventy years. The social movement launched to overturn the oligarchic Rana Regime got political flavor to bring the systemic change in governing process. It was not the situation that then Rana rulers never realized the possible change in the public apprehension towards their undemocratic ruling, otherwise they would not have declined the offer of returning Britishers to get back the territory that Nepal had lost in controversial Sugauli treaty. Their decision is still haunting the thought of every Nepali citizen. It was simply an act of ignorance and selfishness that lead to the treachery against the motherland. That was the beginning of downfall of ethics in Nepali politics as Ranas mainstream thought was to protect their regime even at the cost of weakening national sovereignty. The decision of then prime minister Chandra Shamser to provide access Britishers to trade with Tibet is prime example of it.

Establishment of democracy in 2007 brought some hope for Nepali people but it was simply an illusion. King Tribhuvan had made secret agreement with Indian government to keep an Indian bureaucrat as his adviser. That was the continuation of the subjugation and acceptance of inferiority from the side of king. All the water and trade agreements signed between two countries gave nothing to Nepal rather optimum from here. South Asian Free Trade Agreement ( SAPTA) was another set back for Nepal where we lost lots of tariffs from India as we have nothing to export compared to India. Why the agreement was put forward and for whose interest is not hidden to anyone at that time. It was signed to please India. Koshi Agreement, Gandak Agreement, Mahakali Sandhi/ Pancheshwor are the agreements signed to extend the government by different leaders in different time. Scandle of Arun Third are other examples of how Nepali politicians and different INGOs have been utilized to fulfill their interest. it was the case of exploiting nation and its resources for an individual benefits and power. Degrading ethics is seen not only infront of India Nepal has been providing ground for religious missions for Europeans. Holiwine scandle  to Millinium Challenge Corporation are few examples to add more.

India has been the major player in Nepal's political change since 2007. Almost every political change and even change in government is directly or indirectly influenced by India. Nepali leaders lost their ethics by giving space in Nepal's internal affairs. That Gave birth to an experience of political subaltern within them. Decision of providing citizenship to Indian people for their political benefits has become another curse for Nepal's sovereignty. The result has started to be seen as India is shallowing the land of Nepal every year in Tarai and in recent years Lipulek and Kalapani encroachment exposed both of the countries ill mentality completely.

After the death of king Mahendra Nepalese diplomacy started to lose its glory slowly and it became completely bare with the establishment of Republic in the country. Increasing corruption, Worsening rule of law and weakening diplomacy are the present reality of the country. Current border dispute has brought Nepal's politicians in a place from where the is no escape either to bring back the encroached land to safe guard their political future or face the agitation of people even for the change of political system. This is the last opportunity to be united for the protection of motherland otherwise history will never forgive them.

India in Kashmir and Its impact on Asian Geopolitics

Kashmir is taken as the heaven of the world. The snowcapped  mountain terrain almost touching the blue sky in an ever glittering day gives a sublime experience in the mind of living intelligence. The paradise has always been tormented by the vicious circle of devastating wars affecting the life of millions of people in the place. The reason behind the escalating conflict in Kashmir is its geopolitical structure which is very significant in Asian trans boarder security and balance of power among the three giant nuclear countries; China, India and Pakistan.

Kashmir is the meeting place for the three nuclear nations of Asia China, India and Pakistan. All three have vital strategic interest in that beautiful land of the earth. Though the land terrain of the place is complex in itself it possesses the huge economic potential. peaceful Kashmir is the paradise for  tourism. Millions of people place their priority to the land for their weekend. It can be the possible source of trade route for India, China and Pakistan if they want to share the boarder for trade . Bhutan also comes in the circle. China and India together shape the huge prospect of world economic structure. If Pakistan joins them, the Asia can be the fertile land for economic gain for all three of them . The ultimate loss is for Present dominant economic players in the world. The ancient Giant continent in trade, Asia is getting its glory back in economic sphere and United Asia can be the source for the economic downfall for entire Europe and America. That can lead to the  increase of Chinese influence in the world market following by India and Pakistan pushing the Americans and The Europeans back again.

Kashmir shares the boarder with even Afghanistan which can be an apparatus to enter to the middle east and even to Israel. In fact it can be the avenue to extend the trade to central Asia. It is the part in world geography which eventually shares the boarder to Europe. This simple geographical sketch gives the glimpse why Asia is always suffering from the trauma of war many times either Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, India Israel or even Nepal. World players especially the first world may not like to see the peaceful Asia for that they are always playing game to destabilize the continent ether by playing India card or Pakistan and many more. United Asia can be the biggest threat to world power structure and worlds economic structure that is what Europe and America do not want to happen. India in Kashmir is the result of the game perhaps played by the silent killers who encouraged India to erase the existence of Kashmir and they may equally evoke Pakistan in the name of retaliation. The sign of which is seen when Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on independence day threatened India against the recent political development in Kashmir.

The role of China in the issue bears huge significance as it can stope the possible confrontation between the neighbors with same origin. Though there is still conflict on the issue of Laddhakh between India and China present crisis can be ended peacefully if China plays sensible diplomacy.
China can bargain with India for very ambitious Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) to settle the dispute. For the westerners who are very sure about China's possible interference, might have thought if china remains patient, Kashmir is more prone to increase counter terrorism leading to instability in the reason. This time Asia needs to address the India Pakistan issue peacefully to tackle the possible downfall of the region and to fail the strategy of the west.